The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby arrives Saturday, with Louisville’s Churchill Downs testing 3-year-old thoroughbreds at 1¼ miles for the first time in their careers. The horses in the field qualified by performing well enough on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, which includes dozens of races held at tracks around the globe, giving hopefuls a shot at Saturday’s $3 million purse. This year’s race was upended by five dropouts leading up to post time, winnowing the field to 18 and further complicating the wagering.

The morning-line favorite, Forte, came into the Derby on a five-race winning streak, including a victory in April’s Grade I Florida Derby, a key prep race on the Derby trail and was looking to become the third Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to win the Kentucky Derby. Forte’s trainer (Todd Pletcher) and jockey (Irad Ortiz Jr.) were also looking to buck historical trends. Unfortunately, he was a late scratch on Saturday morning.

Without Forte, trainer Todd Pletcher has other options. Tapit Trice, the second-favorite on the money line, and Kingsbarns (a horse we highlighted in April) also qualified for the big race under his watchful eye, and either could be the first to the wire at Churchill Downs.

Forte was 3-1 on the morning line. Tapit Trice is 5-1, while Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire is 8-1. Practical Move, Lord Miles and Continuar all scratched Thursday, opening spots for Cyclone Mischief, Mandarin Hero and King Russell. Skinner scratched Friday.

For more, see this guide on how to find fair value for a potential Kentucky Derby winner, and here are my trifecta and superfecta picks.

Post time: Saturday, 6:57 p.m. Eastern

Post position: 1

Odds: 30-1

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Manny Franco

This chestnut colt won the Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct by 5½ lengths and finished second by a nose in the Grade II Wood Memorial around the same oval. Trainer Brad Cox has a positive return on investment for graded stakes races, returning $0.30 cents for every $2 bet over 386 races. Hit Show probably doesn’t win against this field, but he could hit the board, finishing third or fourth at a nice price.

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Post position: 2

Odds: 15-1

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Verifying, a half brother to 2019 champion older female horse Midnight Bisou, broke his maiden on the first try with a blazing 97 Brisnet speed figure and just topped that with a 102 Brisnet speed figure in his narrow second-place finish in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. When a 3-year-old horse exceeds his best 2-year-old speed figure, that typically signals a step forward in the near future.

Two Phil’s

Post position: 3

Odds: 12-1

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Jockey: Jareth Loveberry

No matter the surface, Two Phil’s finds a way to hit the board. He won the Grade III Street Sense Stakes in the slop, placed in the Grade III Lecomte Stakes and finished third in the Grade II Risen Star on dirt. Then he won the Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks on a synthetic Tapeta surface at Turfway Park. No surprise there. His sire, Hard Spun, qualified for the Kentucky Derby in 2007 with a win in the Jeff Ruby (then known as the Lane’s End Stakes) over Turfway Park’s synthetic Polytrack surface.

Two Phil’s also recorded the highest Brisnet speed figure in his last race of any horse in the field in its last race — a 107 in the Jeff Ruby, two points higher than par for a Grade I route stakes race and five points higher than Tapit Trice (102) and Verifying (102). They rank second in the field for highest speed figure recorded in their last outing.

Confidence Game

Post position: 4

Odds: 20-1

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Jockey: James Graham

The victory in February’s Grade II Rebel Stakes was a solid win, and the fact it happened over a sloppy, sealed track adds some gravitas. In addition, this son of Candy Ride — a sire of six award-winning horses, including 2017 horse of the year Gun Runner — is an overachiever. He won the Rebel Stakes at 18-1 and an optional claiming race at 11-1, plus he placed in another optional claiming race (finishing second at 10-1) and ran third in his debut at 8-1. Confidence Game could be a surprise contender.

Here is the 20-1 long shot that could win the Kentucky Derby

Tapit Trice

Post position: 5

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Luis Saez

Back-to-back wins in the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby and Grade I Blue Grass Stakes showed off his speed — he has a career-high 102 Brisnet speed figure — and you would expect a son of Tapit, the sire of four Belmont Stakes winners, to have the stamina he needs to carry that speed over 10 furlongs. However, Tapit Trice has inherited more speed than stamina from the mare’s side of the pedigree, and that’s a potential red flag. Consider him in exotics, but be wary using him on top of the ticket.

Kingsbarns

Post position: 6

Odds: 12-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

This undefeated son of 2010 champion 2-year-old male Uncle Mo has stretched out in each of his three races while racing closer to the front each time, the last run a wire-to-wire victory in the Grade II Louisiana Derby over 1 3/16 miles. He’s a solid contender for all tickets.

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Reincarnate

Post position: 7

Odds: 50-1

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: John Velazquez

In January, after winning the Grade III Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park, Reincarnate was transferred from trainer Bob Baffert, who is serving a suspension at Churchill Downs through this year’s spring meet, to Yakteen. Since then, Reincarnate has two third-place finishes, both at Oaklawn: the Grade II Rebel Stakes (over a sloppy track) and the Grade I Arkansas Derby. In the latter, the trip notes observed that Reincarnate “lacked a closing punch,” a concern at Saturday’s longer distance.

5 Kentucky Derby contenders to watch in 2023 — and a few to avoid

Post position: 9

Odds: 30-1

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Disarm grabbed a spot in the starting gate after finishing third in the Grade III Lexington Stakes, the final race on the Derby trail. His late kick in that race is encouraging — he finished the final furlong in 12 seconds flat, the fastest final furlong in the field during any horse’s last prep race — and he could be fast enough to grab third or fourth place.

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Jace’s Road

Post position: 10

Odds: 15-1

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Brad Cox’s colt looks good on a fast dirt track. Jace’s Road has two wins and two third-place finishes in four races on fast dirt, and the latest of those, the Grade II Louisiana Derby, showed him transferring his speed to the end of the race. That’s a good sign for a horse being asked to go a longer distance next time out — in this case, 1¼ miles at Churchill Downs. It might not be enough to win, but Jace’s Road is an intriguing choice for the back end of exotics such as trifectas and superfectas.

Sun Thunder

Post position: 11

Odds: 50-1

Trainer: Kenny McPeek

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

His only win was in the maiden ranks. Since then, he’s winless in four starts, with a second-place finish in the Grade II Risen Star Stakes his best performance. His closing style would probably require a speed meltdown at the front to give him any chance.

Angel of Empire

Post position: 12

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Brad Cox’s bay colt drew away from the field in the Grade I Arkansas Derby, winning by 4¼ lengths. Perhaps more impressive: Angel of Empire covered the final three furlongs in 36.9 seconds, beating the benchmark for Kentucky Derby winners, also known as the Final Fractions theory, by more than a second. He covered the final furlong in 12.1 seconds, a blistering speed that is promising for Saturday’s Run for the Roses.

Raise Cain

Post position: 13

Odds: 50-1

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Jockey: Gerardo Corrales

Raise Cain has struggled in stakes competition, both graded and listed, winning just once in five tries since he broke his maiden at Keeneland in October. The pedigree is also a concern, tilting too much toward stamina (thanks in part to maternal grandsire Lemon Drop Kid) with not enough speed to balance it out. His career-high speed figure is 94, earned while finishing fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes, a healthy 11 points off par for this race.

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Derma Sotogake

Post position: 14

Odds: 10-1

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

Horses from Japan don’t have a history of success in the Kentucky Derby. Since 1995, just two have tried, and the best effort came from Master Fencer, who placed sixth upon Maximum Security’s disqualification in 2019. UAE Derby winners haven’t fared well, either. They are 0 for 18 in the Run for the Roses. This time could be different. Derma Sotogake is coming off a runaway victory in the UAE Derby and appears to have inherited more speed than previous winners of that prep race.

Rocket Can

Post position: 15

Odds: 30-1

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

The higher the competition Rocket Can faces, the worse he performs. He started his 3-year-old campaign with a win in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes, then finished second by 4½ lengths in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes and followed that with a fourth-place finish (by 4¾ lengths) in the Grade I Arkansas Derby.

Cyclone Mischief

Post position: 16

Odds: 30-1

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

A third-place finish in the Grade I Florida Derby at 13-1 odds was certainly commendable, but his speed and pedigree fall short of the other contenders. As a front-runner he wants to be a factor in the early pace, yet having to get to the rail from an extreme outside post should be difficult.

Mandarin Hero

Post position: 17

Odds: 20-1

Trainer: Terunobu Fujita

Jockey: Kazushi Kimura

The Japanese shipper came within a nose of catching Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby, continuing his consistency. In six starts, Mandarin Hero has four wins and two second-place finishes. Two victories in the slop with a pedigree that swings toward stamina more than speed is unusual and could be a harbinger of bigger things ahead on Saturday.

King Russell

Post position: 18

Odds: 50-1

Trainer: Ron Moquett

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

It took King Russell five starts at three different tracks to break his maiden, and he followed that up with a second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, losing to Angel of Empire by 4¼ lengths. That race was slow to the half-mile mark and with an average final time for a Grade I route race, suggesting his effort was not Triple Crown material.

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