Preseason polls are pointless. They are fodder for debate. They are a driver of TV ratings. They attempt to bring order and understanding to a season without a script. They shape the perception of programs that won’t reveal their identities for months.
Just two weeks into the current college football season, three top-10 teams have already lost, along with another three top-25 teams. Georgia remains No. 1, and received 55 of 62 first-place votes in the most recent AP Poll.
That ranking, of course, has nothing to do with anything that has happened this season. The two-time defending champion Bulldogs have hosted Tennessee-Martin and Ball State. Those opponents offer no way to truly gauge a team that returned without 10 players who were NFL draft picks this spring.
History offers stronger evidence.
It has been nearly 90 years since a team won three straight national championships. Since 2005, only one preseason No. 1 team has finished on top. Only once during Alabama’s dynasty was Nick Saban’s team accurately projected, in the preseason poll, to be the nation’s best team. On seven occasions, the Crimson Tide opened the season at No. 1 and closed the season without a championship.
Usually, when Alabama has fallen short, voters have found a new program to anoint. When the Tide have climbed back on top, the body has responded by making it a point to not make the same mistake again.
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart (Saban’s longtime defensive coordinator) and the Bulldogs inspire a similar reaction. In defense of the voters, there was no logical candidate to take Georgia’s place this season. Every contender has flaws, but the Bulldogs’ can be overlooked more easily, nearly 22 months removed from their most recent loss.
We have seen nothing, however, to suggest Georgia will keep the crown. There have been two slow starts against two JV squads, a new quarterback, Carson Beck, who ranks 60th in QBR and a ground game ranked 96th in the nation in yards per game (99.0).
Though Smart’s defenses routinely dominate, moving the ball may be difficult without former quarterback Stetson Bennett, who is now with the NFL’s Rams. In 2019, Georgia’s 65th-ranked offense limited the ceiling of that 12-2 team. In 2020, another two-loss season came with an offense ranked 40th in the nation.
On Saturday, Georgia All-SEC receiver Ladd McConkey may miss a third straight game with a back injury. Star safety Javon Bullard could also be out with an ankle injury, potentially giving South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler — who authored two top-10 upsets last season and this season has an 83.3 completion percentage, no interceptions and an average of nearly 350 yards passing per game — greater freedom to air it out
Georgia won’t be downed — yet. But South Carolina (+27.5) will land the first punches upon the defending champs.
ILLINOIS (+14.5) over Penn State
The Nittany Lions have the talent to win the Big 10 this season, but sophomore quarterback Drew Allar will hit his first speed bumps during his first-ever road start.
Florida State (-25.5) over BOSTON COLLEGE
The Seminoles finished their two most recent road games in the ACC with wins by a combined score of 83-6. They didn’t let up after they beat LSU on Sept. 3. They won’t look ahead to Clemson next week.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (+9.5) over LSU
The first two weeks of Brian Kelly’s first two seasons in Baton Rouge look the same: neutral site losses to Florida State followed by blowouts of FCS opponents. Expect another tough Week 3 battle against the Bulldogs, whose lone home loss last season came against national champion Georgia.
Kansas State (-5.5) over MISSOURI
It’s natural to want to hand Texas the Big 12 title after its breakthrough win at Alabama, but don’t forget about the defending champs, who have tremendous future value (as high as +850) in the midst of the Longhorns lovefest.
NOTRE DAME (-34.5) over Central Michigan
With Sam Hartman under center, the Fighting Irish have scored at least 42 points in their three wins this season. The Chippewas, who gave up 42 points at home to New Hampshire, could allow Notre Dame to cover the over (54.5) on its own.
Alabama (-32.5) over SOUTH FLORIDA
Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe will get a much-needed confidence boost following his team’s first nonconference loss in 16 years, last week versus Texas. The Bulls’ defense ranks 108th in the nation in yards allowed per game (465).
San Diego State (+24.5) over OREGON STATE
The Aztecs’ opportunistic defense, which is averaging 2.5 takeaways per game, will limit the damage in the Beavers’ first moderate test of the season.
Western Kentucky (+28.5) over OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes’ uneven start to the season should continue against the Hilltoppers, who lead the nation in turnover margin and feature a prolific aerial attack.
MICHIGAN STATE (+16.5) over Washington
A 2,300-mile trip could slow the Huskies in their first road game of the season. Last year, Washington’s two losses came away from home, including one at Arizona State (3-9), as did a pair of one-score wins, including one over Cal (4-8).
Betting on College Football?
FLORIDA (+6.5) over Tennessee
Even with quarterback Hendon Hooker and receiver Jalin Hyatt last year, Tennessee barely escaped the rivalry game with a win. It has been two decades since the Volunteers left Gainesville victorious.
MICHIGAN (-40.5) over Bowling Green
Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh won’t be on the sidelines to limit the embarrassment handed to his parents’ alma mater.
Wyoming (+28.5) over TEXAS
While the Longhorns fight their hangover, as a top-five team for the first time in 13 years, the Cowboys arrive two weeks removed from a comeback win over No. 24 Texas Tech.
Hawaii (+38.5) over OREGON
The preparation to face Colorado, with Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, has begun for Oregon.
COLORADO (-23.5) over Colorado State
Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders will keep shouting about receipts and dominance and disrespect — ignoring the contempt he demonstrated for players previously awarded scholarships to play at Colorado — until his team gets punched in the mouth next week at Oregon. Then, Sanders will pivot to a new talking point: “I have 86 new players. What did you expect?”
Best bets: Illinois, Mississippi State, Notre Dame
This season: 12-18 (1-5)
2014-22 record: 1,150-1,082-25
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